Poll predictions....

Opinion Polls are the order of the day.And why not? With the comrades barking all the time over the nuclear deal, the press,which is bereft of ideas and issues,has been going on and on talking about the impending instability. So what's the next obvious question? Which way the country votes.Hence,the barrage of opinion polls.
I must admit though that they make for good viewing.In countries having a homogeneous electorate,psephology is an exact science.Not in India.Here,the rules of the game are different.People vote on the basis of caste and religion.And considering the millions of such groupings within the country,it becomes more than obvious as to why psephology is risky business.
Still,I wanna stick my neck out and make predictions on the composition of the Lok Sabha in the event of a mid term poll.
Why so? Am I crazy? Or do I have loads of free time? Well,neither actually.It is just that I love politics.Plus the temptation to indulge in harmless speculation is too great to resist.And even if i go wrong,who cares? At best,I expect a few friends to read this blog.And what can they do if I go wrong? Nothing at all.
So here I go.Yet,it is important that I warn you in advance.This is no scientific survey(obviously).There are no samples and respondents out here.Whatever gets written here is just based on pure gut feeling.So read on with a truckload of salt.

In my opinion,the composition of the Lok Sabha will be as follows.
UPA- 215-225
NDA-165-175
Left- 45-50
BSP- 40-45
UNPA- 55-60

Here's why.
Firstly,I do believe that the UPA will take a hit in Bihar,Andhra Tamil Nadu and Haryana.
But it will more than make up for it by gains in MP,Rajasthan,Chattisgarh,Karnataka, Orissa(to an extent) and even in Maharashtra considering the squabblings going on between the saffron siblings here.Although,it is worth mentioning that it is the allies who will let the UPA down while the Congress goes about bettering its tally.
Secondly,The Left will lose out on quite a few seats in Kerela and Bengal thanks to the turbulence they are experiencing there due to infighting and issues such as Nandigram and Singur.
As for the NDA, it will lose out where the UPA gains and vice-versa.Though, I expect it to hold on to its tally in Gujarat and a few smaller states.
However,as the above figures clearly show,the major beneficiaries of a mid term poll will be the BSP and the UNPA.The BSP will ride on its recent success in the UP polls while the TDP,the AGP and the AIADMK will gain from some level of anti-incumbency in their respective states.

And that's precisely where the problem lies.A government dependent on support from the likes of the Behenjis and Ammas of the world CAN NEVER BE STABLE.Also,forget economic growth and development with them at the helm.They would be more interested in filling their coffers than bothering about the issues afflicting our nation.
Hence,even though i know that my prayers will fall on deaf ears,I appeal to Karat and Co to be more pragmatic.The present numbers suit you the best.You have all the powers without even an ounce of responsibility.Therefore,Is your anti-Americanism worth sacrificing the veto power that you have on this government?I guess not.
Plus,it is highly unlikely that you return with such numbers.And considering that very few people understand the issue over which you could withdraw support,I wouldn't be surprised if you face the wrath of the people and return with even fewer seats than I expect you to.Therefore,for the sake of this country and more importantly yourself,THINK and save us from an unnecessary mid term poll!!!