Elections in UP

My love with politics and elections started early,way back in 1996 when I was a fourth grader.The Grand Old Party of India, The Congress had just been unseated from power and a new era of coalition politics had just begun.Since then,the spectacle of Indian Elections has never ceased to amaze me.In terms of sheer scale and activity, an Indian Election,or so I would like to believe, is unlike any other in the world.The frenzied political campaigning, the various caste and religious permutations and combinations and the myriad variety of political personalities make it a colourful spectacle, a true celebration of the Great Indian Democracy.Politics in India has gone through a lot of changes in the past decade. And the more I get to see of it, it just leaves me hungrier for more.
And when it comes to elections for state assemblies, nothing comes close to elections in Uttar Pradesh,India's most populous state.Having elected most of India's prime ministers,it is often said that the road to Delhi passes through UP.This election in UP,it is believed, can very well change the dynamics of the central government, and in the near future almost certainly affect the presidential elections.
That is why,these elections assume a great deal of significance and hence, provide me, a budding political analyst, with a suitable topic to kick off my first blog on one of the fields closest to my heart,politics.In this blog, I hope to analyse the prospects of the Congress and present to you my view of the future in UP.Everything I write in this blog will reflect my understanding of the political situation in UP based on what I have read in newspapers and magazines.And so, the views reflected below are nothing but those of a drawing room political analyst with no ground experience whatsoever.So read on at your own risk.
Politics in UP, as known by everyone,has undergone a sea change since the Mandir movement.Voting patterns have been by and large guided by caste considerations The biggest and in fact the only loser of this has been the Congress,which in a way fell between the caste stools.In its heyday, the Congress was strengthened by a formidable rainbow coalition consisting of the Dalits,the Muslims and the Upper Castes.Since the Mandir and Mandal Movement, it has steadily lost its Muslim base to the SP,the Dalits to the BSP and the Upper Castes to the BJP,making it just a fringe player in the polity of UP.An alliance with the BSP ten years ago and a lack of a strong party structure and a powerful leadership only made matters worse for the party.
Sycophants in the Congress,and there is no dearth of those, would like us to believe that the entry of its prince regent,Rahul Gandhi, should bring about a reversal in its fortunes in these elections.This,according to me,is just plain wishful thinking.Firstly,he has jumped into the fray a little too late to make a substantial difference.So bad is the party's organisational structure that even in the Congress' pocket-boroughs of Raebareilly and Amethi,its chances look bleak.Secondly, caste loyalties in UP have become fairly crystallised.And if there was a slight hope of a shift in the fickle upper caste vote from the BJP to the Congress earlier, the political escapades of Arjun Singh have ensured that even that is a distant possibility now.
But things are not as bleak as they seem.The Gandhi scion,is surely making the right noises,if you were to excuse his amateurish comment on the Babri issue.By focussing on issues of development and growth, he has managed to offer a refreshing change as opposed to the casteist politics of the SP and the BSP, and the Hindu centric agenda of the BJP.But he needs to put in more effort at the ground level and build a strong grassroots leadership after the elections are over to ensure a difference in the long run.For now,the Congress should be happy with even a few more seats in its kitty,enough for it to be a player in an almost certain hung assembly.
As for the future, I believe that in the time to come, the politics of Bijli,Sadak,Pani will take centrestage in UP,like it has done in neighbouring Bihar of late.This should herald good news for the two national parties,provided both,particularly the BJP, get over their penchant for petty divisive politics.This should also possibly bring about the downfall of the SP and the BSP, as it seems unlikely that they can shed their casteist stripes soon given the nature of their leadership.Whichever way things go,I just hope that Uttar Pradesh votes for issues rather than breeding a sinister variety of casteist poilitics which is only subject to the law of diminishing returns .Because only that will ensure that a sixth of India's population gets its fair share in the India growth story.